What The Outer Worlds 2 Says About AAA Games in 2026

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Recent industry estimates suggest that The Outer Worlds 2 has struggled to match the success of its predecessor. According to industry consultant Daniel Camilo, the game has sold fewer than one million copies across all platforms roughly three months after its launch on October 29, 2025. The estimate is based on sales revenue, not total audience reach, and draws from public data such as Steam activity as well as private industry sources.

This marks a sharp contrast with the original The Outer Worlds, which reached around two million units sold in the same time window back in 2019. That result is especially notable given that the first game launched as a timed Epic Games Store exclusive and was not available on Steam at release. By comparison, The Outer Worlds 2 saw lower Steam activity, with peak numbers sitting well below the original.

Camilo notes that overall engagement with the sequel may still be high due to its day-one release on Xbox Game Pass. However, that same availability likely reduced direct purchases. This effect has been seen before, with reports suggesting Game Pass has led to large losses in boxed and digital sales for major franchises. In this case, broad access may have come at the cost of traditional revenue.

Pricing also became an issue before launch. Xbox originally planned to sell the game for $80, which would have been the company’s first title at that price point. After public backlash, the price was lowered to $70, but the controversy may have already hurt perception and momentum.

Questions are now being raised about the future of the series. Obsidian, now an Xbox-owned studio, has not announced plans for a third main entry. According to comments from studio co-founder Chris Avellone, the focus appears to be on downloadable content and a follow-up to Avowed, rather than continuing The Outer Worlds as a long-running franchise. Neither Obsidian nor Xbox has publicly challenged the sales estimates.

Indie Games Continue To Grow

Online discussion around the game has been heated. Some voices blame weak performance on story direction and tone, pointing to themes around power, corporations, and leadership that they feel were overemphasized. Others argue that the sequel stayed visually and stylistically close to the original, and that fatigue with big-budget sequels may be the real issue.

More broadly, The Outer Worlds 2 reflects ongoing struggles in the AAA and AA space. Big sequels are expected to grow their audience and revenue, yet rising prices, subscription services, and long development cycles make that goal harder to reach. In 2025, thousands of developers were laid off across the industry, and surveys showed that many consumers bought few, if any, full-priced games throughout the year. At the same time, production budgets for major titles continue to climb, often requiring massive sales just to break even.

Xbox has not been immune to these pressures. Revenue declines, studio closures, and the sale of publishing labels like Private Division point to a market still searching for stability. Even well-known releases have struggled to meet internal expectations, despite solid brand recognition.

In contrast, independent games continue to gain ground. In 2025, indie titles made up a large share of Steam’s total revenue, even as thousands of small projects launched with little visibility. Low budgets, strong wishlist growth, and viral discovery have allowed standout releases to thrive. Industry forecasts suggest this segment will continue to grow rapidly over the next several years.

Seen through this lens, The Outer Worlds 2 is less an isolated disappointment and more a sign of a changing market. Big-budget games face higher risks than ever, while smaller teams are finding new paths to success. The gap between the two continues to widen, and not every sequel can cross it.