The challenges of converting Steam wishlists into launch-day sales

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In the world of PC and console gaming, successful launches often resemble the film industry: high stakes, unpredictable outcomes, and dependence on strong initial momentum. On Steam, wishlists serve as a valuable indicator of interest, but converting them into actual sales remains notoriously unreliable, as analyzed by GameDiscoverCo.

A recent example highlights the challenge of turning wishlists into purchases: The Axis Unseen, a first-person fantasy horror game developed solo by former Bethesda designer Nate Purkeypile, launched on October 22, 2024. With more than 150,000 Steam wishlists prior to release, expectations were high. However, the game peaked at only 86 concurrent users (CCU) and achieved a conversion rate of just 0.02–0.03x, far below predictions.

High wishlists ≠ guaranteed sales

While many games may expect a wishlist conversion rate around 0.17x in the first week (meaning 17% of wishlisters end up buying the game), The Axis Unseen saw rates closer to 2–3%. This unusually low conversion puzzled analysts, especially given the game’s strong visuals and Purkeypile’s industry experience. Several factors may explain the gap between wishlist interest and actual sales:

• Genre expectations for first-person RPGs: Popular genres like first-person RPGs come with high player expectations. Many gamers envision vast, Skyrim-like worlds filled with rich narratives, character progression, and open-world exploration. Though visually striking, The Axis Unseen offers a more focused, hunting-based experience, leaving some players disappointed, particularly those drawn in by the “former Skyrim developer” label or an impressive trailer.
• Surface-level interest from Bethesda fans: Purkeypile’s background likely increased visibility, attracting Bethesda fans who added the game to their wishlists with a “remind me later” mindset. Many were perhaps not committed to buying, especially if the gameplay diverged from traditional RPG expectations.
• A niche concept that struggles to attract mainstream audiences: The game’s premise, monster hunting in a post-apocalyptic world, creates a unique experience. However, unique concepts can struggle to pull in mainstream audiences. As a comparison, its gameplay somewhat resembles hunting titles like theHunter: Call of the Wild, known for a smaller but dedicated fanbase.

The case of The Axis Unseen highlights the importance of understanding the type of audience behind your wishlists. A large wishlist count doesn’t necessarily represent strong purchase intent; it may reflect curiosity rather than commitment. Games that attract shallow interest or fall into broadly defined genres without clear market comps often experience unpredictable launch-day performance.

A key takeaway for developers is that not all wishlists are equal. Games in underserved niches or with well-established gameplay expectations tend to gather more committed wishlists and, therefore, higher conversion rates. In contrast, unique or less clearly defined genres may accumulate “looks cool” wishlists that do not reliably translate into day-one sales.