Why Steam Next Fest May No Longer Be the Golden Ticket for Indie Games

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Steam Next Fest remains one of the biggest discovery events for PC games, but new analysis suggests that its growing popularity may actually be making it harder for developers to stand out. According to Alinea Analytics market analyst Rhys Elliott, the June 2026 edition featured more than 4,300 playable demos, creating fierce competition for attention.

In a detailed breakdown, Elliott argues that many developers continue to place too much importance on Steam wishlists, despite evidence showing they often fail to translate into actual sales. Data from previous Next Fest events indicates that even successful games converted only a relatively small percentage of wishlists into purchases after launch, with some titles seeing conversion rates as low as one to five percent.

We looked at the top games from the June 2025 Next Fest and tracked how many of their wishlisters actually became buyers once the games launched (as per our estimates):

• Dispatch, one of the better converters, turned about 25% of its June 2025 wishlisters into buyers within three months. It’s still sitting on the other 75%.
• No, I’m Not a Human converted around 15% of its 189K wishlisters three months post-launch.
• Jump Space managed about 10%.
• Dead as Disco converted roughly 5% within 30 days (it came out last month)
• Ball X Pit hit about 26% at 90 days, near the top of the range.
• Pioner converted around 1%, sunk by heavy technical and optimisation problems at launch.

So even the strong performers leave the large majority of their wishlists unconverted, and most of those people won’t buy until a heavy discount lands much later, if at all.

Instead of chasing wishlist totals, Elliott recommends focusing on metrics that better reflect genuine player engagement. Demo playtime and the percentage of players who wishlist a game after trying its demo may provide a much clearer picture of future commercial performance than raw wishlist numbers alone.

The analysis also raises questions about whether every developer should participate in Steam Next Fest. For smaller projects, launching a demo outside the event could potentially generate greater visibility by avoiding thousands of competing releases. While Next Fest remains an important promotional opportunity, Elliott believes long-term marketing and game quality remain far more important than a single week of exposure.