Don’t Expect Nintendo to Abandon Physical Games, Industry Analyst Says

If you enjoy independent indie game coverage, consider supporting Indie-Games.eu on Patreon. It helps keep the site independent.

Sony’s decision to end production of physical discs for new PlayStation games beginning in 2028 has raised questions about whether other console manufacturers will adopt a similar strategy, which include Xbox and Nintendo.

According to Circana analyst Mat Piscatella, however, Nintendo is unlikely to change its plans simply because one of its competitors has. Speaking to VGC, Piscatella said Nintendo has a long history of making decisions independently rather than following broader industry trends.

“My gut says Nintendo does what Nintendo wants to do. I don’t see them changing anything in their plans based on what Sony or Microsoft do on anything, really. Nintendo is going to be Nintendo, for better and/or worse.”

Nintendo has frequently taken a different approach to hardware and software throughout its history. From continuing to use cartridges with the Nintendo 64 while competitors embraced optical discs, to launching the GameCube without DVD playback, the company has often prioritized its own strategy over prevailing market trends.

That independent philosophy could also influence how Nintendo approaches physical game distribution. While Sony has confirmed that new PlayStation releases after January 2028 will no longer ship on discs, Nintendo continues to perform strongly at retail, particularly following the launch of the Nintendo Switch 2.

Piscatella noted that Nintendo remains one of the industry’s strongest drivers of physical software and hardware sales, with franchises such as Mario, The Legend of Zelda, Pokémon and Kirby continuing to attract both players and collectors.

“Retail has already leaned into Nintendo support more and more over the past few years (Nintendo also holds very strong share of physical software and hardware sales since the launch of Switch 2 in particular), so this could continue to increase, sure.”

Even so, the analyst believes Sony’s decision will continue accelerating the broader decline of physical game sales across the industry. Rather than disappearing entirely, retail shelves may increasingly feature boxed editions containing digital download codes, collector’s editions and gaming merchandise instead of traditional game discs.

“It’s not like boxes on shelves will go away entirely with this change. There will be more codes in boxes, more merch, maybe more special editions with swag included, that kind of thing. But the change should also result in the continued decline in physical game retail spend.”